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Ignore the Headlines: Instead, Pay Attention to This
“If they don’t scare you out, they will wear you out.” ~ Peter Lynch
When I analyze the recent market action, I am reminded of the Peter Lynch quote above. Over the past five months, the market has been tricky, headline-driven, and contradictory. For instance, according to Bloomberg, “This is the tightest range for this point of the year in the history of the S&P 500 (going back to 1928), and tighter than any Dow range going back to 1896.”
Conversely, performance in individual names has been anything but predictable. For example, the divergence among AI names is breathtaking. Year-to-date, Applied Optoelectronics is up 179% while IREN is flat.
Which Way Will the Market Break?
On Wall Street, volatility contraction leads to range expansion. The longer and tighter the price consolidation, the larger the subsequent market move after a breakout or breakdown. So which way will the market break?
“Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in all the corrections themselves.”~ Peter Lynch
Amid a war with Iran and fears of further geopolitical escalation, investors are fearful. According to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, the majority of investors lean bearish.
What Do the Technicals Say?
In a market full of headlines, savvy investors cut through the noise using technical analysis. After all, price and volume action can provide more value to investors than any headline can. Below are three technical details to consider:
1. QQQ 200-day Moving Average Support: The Nasdaq 100 Index ETF just tagged its 200-day moving average for the first time since breaking above it in mid-2025. Typically, the first two tags of the 200-day moving average act as fantastic risk/reward levels for longs.
2. Undercut & Reversal: Monday, QQQ undercut the price consolidation dating back to early last month, then reversed higher and finished the session green. This type of “stop run” is often a necessary ingredient to shake out weak market participants.
3. Leading Stocks Find Support: As the old Wall Street adage goes, “So go the leaders, so goes the market.” In a welcome sign for bulls, several leading AI stocks found support at the 200-day moving average this week, including NVIDIA,Broadcom, Nebius and Iren.
Interpret, Don’t Predict
“My metric for everything I look at is the 200-day moving average of closing prices.”~ Paul Tudor Jones
When it comes to markets, the best thing an investor can do is observe and respect price action and maintain an open mind. Despite the negative headlines and choppy price action lately, leading stocks and indices are finding buyers at the 200-day moving average. As such, investors should lean long stocks. Should the 200-day moving average break, investors can change course. However, the 200-day moving average currently offers asymmetric reward-to-risk.
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Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Applied Optoelectronics, IREN, QQQ, NVIDIA, Broadcom and Nebius
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – March 11, 2026 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI - Free Report) , IREN (IREN - Free Report) , Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ - Free Report) , NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) , Broadcom (AVGO - Free Report) , Nebius (NBIS - Free Report)
Ignore the Headlines: Instead, Pay Attention to This
“If they don’t scare you out, they will wear you out.” ~ Peter Lynch
When I analyze the recent market action, I am reminded of the Peter Lynch quote above. Over the past five months, the market has been tricky, headline-driven, and contradictory. For instance, according to Bloomberg, “This is the tightest range for this point of the year in the history of the S&P 500 (going back to 1928), and tighter than any Dow range going back to 1896.”
Conversely, performance in individual names has been anything but predictable. For example, the divergence among AI names is breathtaking. Year-to-date, Applied Optoelectronics is up 179% while IREN is flat.
Which Way Will the Market Break?
On Wall Street, volatility contraction leads to range expansion. The longer and tighter the price consolidation, the larger the subsequent market move after a breakout or breakdown. So which way will the market break?
“Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in all the corrections themselves.”~ Peter Lynch
Amid a war with Iran and fears of further geopolitical escalation, investors are fearful. According to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, the majority of investors lean bearish.
What Do the Technicals Say?
In a market full of headlines, savvy investors cut through the noise using technical analysis. After all, price and volume action can provide more value to investors than any headline can. Below are three technical details to consider:
1. QQQ 200-day Moving Average Support: The Nasdaq 100 Index ETF just tagged its 200-day moving average for the first time since breaking above it in mid-2025. Typically, the first two tags of the 200-day moving average act as fantastic risk/reward levels for longs.
2. Undercut & Reversal: Monday, QQQ undercut the price consolidation dating back to early last month, then reversed higher and finished the session green. This type of “stop run” is often a necessary ingredient to shake out weak market participants.
3. Leading Stocks Find Support: As the old Wall Street adage goes, “So go the leaders, so goes the market.” In a welcome sign for bulls, several leading AI stocks found support at the 200-day moving average this week, including NVIDIA,Broadcom, Nebius and Iren.
Interpret, Don’t Predict
“My metric for everything I look at is the 200-day moving average of closing prices.”~ Paul Tudor Jones
When it comes to markets, the best thing an investor can do is observe and respect price action and maintain an open mind. Despite the negative headlines and choppy price action lately, leading stocks and indices are finding buyers at the 200-day moving average. As such, investors should lean long stocks. Should the 200-day moving average break, investors can change course. However, the 200-day moving average currently offers asymmetric reward-to-risk.
Why Haven't You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year.
Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
See Stocks Free >>
Media Contact
Zacks Investment Research
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.